I'd classify this as really change, but if Russia keeps acting the way they are, and then aligns themselves with ISIS/ISIL and North Korea suddenly decides to rear it's ugly head and align with them as well. I think that would lead to a draft.
I'm assuming you mean all these nations align and become hostile all at the same time. Apart from that being extraordinarily unlikely (seriously, you have better odds of being struck by lightning) here are some other reasons why a draft wouldn't get instituted
- Americans hate the draft. I don't think it even would have been tolerated after 9/11... and that was when nationalism as at its peak. There's no way we'd tolerate it now after having spent the last 10+ years in long drawn out wars.
- North Korea is a baby. They kind of don't even count. The only reason we give 2 shits about them is because they have nuclear capabilities, but they're not going to start a nuclear war for shits and giggles -- they're not that dumb.
- If Russia sides with ISIS, they'll have to deal with the US and China. I wouldn't put this past Putin... he's kind of nuts... but between the both of us I don't think we'd need to draft. Remember: ISIS is a much, much bigger threat to China than it is to us.
- If this happens, it won't be just the US, it will be all of the UN, and China, and pretty much everyone else. Russia would be making themselves public enemy number 1.
- Did I mention Americans hate the draft?
- I think you underestimate just how big our military is ... before a draft... and even before reserves. We are by far the largest, most powerful military presence in the world.
I don't think North Korea is capable of anything, and the only explanation I have for life being like it is there is that it is an experiment by larger powers in the world.
Take a look at it in google earth, notice anything strange? There are about 100 cars in Pyongyang, the capital. You're lucky to find cars, trucks, ANYTHING going on anywhere else. I have a strong feeling the blue roofs are tarps.
Sinŭiju has some signs of life, but not nearly as many as right across the river in China.
Edit: These words as they are typed are out of line, don't take me too seriously: If any people are in need of liberation, I would say it is the North Koreans. It probably wouldn't take too much effort to wipe the army/government out.
However, time and time again it has been shown that you can't simply put a government into place. In the middle east, it seems like we have to learn this lesson again.
Wars these days are more about the fact that weapon manufacturer's make a ton of money and that the factories provide a large amount of jobs.
Just recently, the Air Force was told to trim its budget. The Air Force proposed closing down a couple factories. Congress shot this idea down because the closing of the factories would cause those representatives to look bad to the people. Weapon factories are spread out just right to take advantage of this fact...
Uh oh, I think I need some of Disch's filtering abilities...